Homer Bailey is to Tom Verducci as the Iraq War is to, like, four Democratic Senators circa-2003

I've been thinking about this for some time, as has Sports Illustrated columnist/Paper Blue Jay Tom Verducci. Everyone in Cincinnati, it appears, is all about Homer Bailey making the big leap to the big leagues in a big way this big season, but--as SI.com scribe/being of heightened sense Verducci proves--such a promotion is, in many ways, kind of a bad idea. A rather poor idea, in fact.

Verducci rather conclusively proves that most every phenom wunderkind pitcher whose workload has been increased by thirty innings or more from one season to the next has broken down like a Derby stallion. Also, most of Verducci's test cases are, like, 23 and 24. Bailey's 20. Hence the psuedo-apocalyptic (yet still wholly inappropriate) title of this post.

Actually, never mind. Bailey already passed the thirty-inning-increase threshold last year. Fuck.

Lonnie Wheeler thinks Adam Dunn should be traded for Ass Penny

I hope the title didn't give too much away re: my feelings about this suggestion.
To start off, let's admit that Brad Penny isn't that bad:

2005: 3.90 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, ERA+ 104 (NL average: 4.22, 1.38*)
2006: 4.33 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, ERA+ 106 (NL average: 4.49, 1.37*)

But he really isn't that good either.
Here are more numbers from some other guy to make my point:

2005: 4.17 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, ERA+ 108 (AL average: 4.35, 1.37*)
2006: 4.75 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, ERA+ 93 (AL average: 4.56, 1.42*)

Who dis other dude is? He be Kirk Saaarloooos. So clearly Penny is better than Saarloos. But, point is...gosh, not that much better.

Look, I know, it's really hard to look past Opening Day starts by Cory Lidle, Jimmy Haynes, and Joey "Oh, my God...is that a manitee on the mound? Someone should do something about that. Seriously, who has Sea World's phone number?" Hamilton, but the fact is that the Reds rotation is solid now.

ON THE OTHER HAND, the Reds offense let itself be lulled to sleep in the middle of the playoff race last year. Also, our best hitter left for free agency. Also, our second best hitter is aging and kind of susceptible to injury. Also, I have a bad feeling Brandon Phillips and David Ross aren't going to hit nearly as well as they did last year.

That said, Wheeler does make a good point that Dunn's superficial value (big ole homers) is probably a lot higher than his actual value (subpar fielding, low BA w/ RISP), so trading him wouldn't be a bad idea. Let's just not trade him for another Eric Milton. Because we already have like 4 of him.

Also, Brad Penny totally looks like a dick.

*my calculations, could be off

Chad Moeller might be the solution...

....to the following question:

Which catcher in the history of the MLB is least deserving of being paid money to play baseball?

From the reds.mlb.com report on the Dominican Winter League:

C Chad Moeller -- The Major League veteran hit .069 in 10 games for the Estrellas de Oriente, who did not qualify for the postseason.

I'm officially starting a "Bring Back Damon Berryhill" campaign.

Hot Damn

Wooooo POST. BLOG. Words. And three more!